Old Lula, New Tricks?
In the dénouement of a fierce Presidential election marred by protests, scaremongering, and fatal violence, Brazil’s reappointment of left-wing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against hard-right outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro, has left the country at odds with itself.
Taking home the victory for the Worker’s Party on a razor-thin margin of just 0.9%, former President Lula’s campaign was considered by many to represent the principles of democracy, socioeconomic equality, and ecological conservation that have remained the crux of his political sensibilities for the last five decades. In an ideological contrast, Bolsonaro oversaw an agricultural and construction boom in the country’s interior that won the support of many farmers and businessmen, leading to the soaring depletion of rainforest sites and Indigenous lands throughout his time in office. Moreover, a famously outspoken and direct politician, Bolsonaro’s repeated attacks on LGBTQ+ communities and his refusal to take the pandemic seriously further splintered the electorate as Brazilians rushed to either stand with his views, or firmly against them.
However, now that Lula as officially returned to the highest seat in politics, with Bolsonaro accepting his defeat a full two days after the announcement, what will this likely mean for the people who have struggled most under the departing President?
The electorate that Lula has most consistently aligned himself with throughout his political career has been the workers living on or under the breadline, struggling to survive in Brazil’s highly unequal socioeconomic society. With 33 million Brazilians facing acute hunger, and triple that living in poverty, Lula’s manifesto to build affordable housing, improve public transport and energy provision, and introduce proportionally higher taxes on the wealthiest factions of society are for many a lifeline in response to four years of hard-right and austere policies. His pledge to revamp the 2003 Bolsa Familia poverty relief programme that drew international acclaim, providing handouts in exchange for keeping children in education and vaccinated, is an important step in cementing Brazil as a global leader in social welfare and futurity once again. In the wake of a disastrous Covid-19 strategy that has claimed the lives of 700,000 Brazilians and pushed 83.5% of the labour market into a state of vulnerability, Lula’s socially oriented Presidency cannot come soon enough for the 30% living on fewer than US$95 per month.
Lula’s appeal has also been strongly rooted in his attitude towards curbing the deforestation within Brazil’s Amazon rainforest. Endorsed by environmentalists, scientists, and world leaders globally, Lula’s pledge to clamp down on the illegal logging, mining, and land occupation that surged to 8.4 million acres lost during Bolsonaro’s incumbency will come in the form of a green approach to Brazil’s economy. With plans to reinstate protected status to over half a million kilometres of rainforest, crack down on illegal logging, invest in state environmental agencies and send representatives to the approaching COP27 summit in Egypt, it appears Lula is hoping to usher Brazil into a new era of climate conscious growth. Alongside vows to uphold Indigenous rights and to demarcate and defend territories, Lula’s stance holds the potential to provide safety and security to Indigenous towns and villages living within the Amazon rainforest, as well as reassure the wider national and international community that one of the world’s biggest carbon sinks is under protection once again.
Nevertheless, it is important to look back at the not-so-distant past of Lula’s last tenure. His support for the Belo Monte hydroelectric dam complex that spans a total of 6500 square kilometres has been strongly opposed by environmental and Indigenous groups who face the eradication of natural spaces, changes to their water supplies, and significant loss of biodiversity. With failures to obtain free and informed consent from sixteen Indigenous tribes such as the Juruna and Arara that are based in the Belo Monte surroundings, Lula’s promises to safeguard against disruption and displacement in his third term are by no means a given. In comparison to Bolsonaro’s dismantling of Indigenous protections and his candid refusal to enforce conservation however, Lula’s election holds a much more optimistic future for those impacted by his predecessor’s antipathy.
Another core group of advocates that Lula has left hopeful in his election success is Brazil’s LGBTQ+ identifiers and allies, who have faced years of attack and disenfranchisement under Bolsonaro. Describing himself as a “proud homophobe,” the departing President’s use of slurs and his opposition to the criminalisation of homophobia has been considered by many to incite worrying trends of sexual orientation-based violence. In contrast, the Worker’s Party’s commitment to civil rights can be seen in their overseeing of the legalisation of gay marriage in 2013, and so Brazil’s return of liberal policies and freedoms are far more likely to be guaranteed under the President-Elect.
Feminist organisations have also largely given their support towards Lula on account of his comparatively progressive opinions surrounding matters of sexual and reproductive rights. Unlike Bolsonaro who actively campaigned against legalising abortion, Lula’s repeated stance of being personally “against abortion” but in favour of upholding the rights for women to decide about their lives highlights a clear divide in approaches to female bodily autonomy. With commitments of making abortion a public health issue to prevent deaths from underground procedures, Lula’s controversially feminist stance is being widely welcomed by equal rights groups throughout Brazil.
The battle for bodily autonomy does not stop with Lula, however: in the parliamentary and governor elections at the beginning of October, right and far-right wing parties exceeded forecasts, winning more representatives in the two houses of parliament than the Worker’s Party and its allies. This means that throughout his Presidency, Lula will have a difficult job in getting through contentious policies, leading to concerns of just how revolutionary Lula will be able to be.
Despite receiving emphatic support from many of the communities that have suffered most under Bolsonaro’s radically conservative administration, the reality that Lula is inheriting a country split between two of the most populist politicians seen in recent years leads to the realisation that this left-winger’s ultimate legacy is yet to be determined. Protests that sprung up with Bolsonaro’s defeat such as truckers blocking roads and doubts being cast over the electoral process emphasise the challenge Lula’s faces in winning over the hearts and minds of 60 million Brazilians. As Lula prepares to take up office in January 2023, it is unlikely that this transition will be without hostility.